Jan 23 / 5:05pm

Tim Thomas is a Jerk

Yeesh. My headline expresses my thoughts but so does this parenthetical remark by the writer:

(Is it any wonder that the country is so politically fractured when a bunch of guys can't agree to just get together and talk sports?)

Filed under  //  Obama   Politics   Sports  

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Jan 18 / 1:24pm

Eli Manning Has the Flu. Bad New for Giants ((tag; Sports, Football, 49ers))

Press reports indicate that New York Giants QB Eli Manning left practice early today with the stomach flu.

If that's true -- and I don't put anything past NFL owners and managers -- then Manning will be debilitated and either missing practice or working an abbreviated program for two or three days. This is Wednesday. If he doesn't recover much of his strength before Friday, this could really hurt him coming into Candlestick Park for Sunday's NFC Championship game.

I never wish ill or injury on anyone and this is no exception but a tiny corner of my mind licks its lips in anticipation of any reason the Niners can get to support optimism before the big game Sunday.

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Jan 13 / 6:15pm

Niners - Saints Tomorrow: My Prognosis

Here, FWIW, is my take on tomorrow's playoff game between my San Francisco 49ers and the smokin' hot New Orleans Saints.

The present line has the Saints favored by an astonishingly small 3.5 point margin. The over-under is also low at 47.5.

I'm predicting the Niners will lose, but by between 6 and 10 points, making the game closer than expected.

If -- big If -- the Niners are ahead by 10+ at the half, they could pull out a win. Otherwise, I don't see how the Niners stop the potent Saints' offense and Drew Brees in a second half they've dominated all year.
Filed under  //  NFL   Niners   football  

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Jan 8 / 11:34pm

Niners to Face Saints in First...and Last?...Playoff Game of 2012

I watched the New Orleans Saints second-half dismantling of my old favorite Detroit Lions Saturday evening with no mixed emotions at all. I really wanted the Lions to win that one. Not only because I used to cover the Lions. Not only because I think their fans deserve better. But also because, selfishly, I figured my Niners had a better chance of beating the winner of the other NFC Wild Card playoff game than the Saints.

But what I saw in the game leads me to believe it's going to be all but impossible for the Niners to beat the Saints. As good as the SF defense is, I don't think it can bottle up Drew Brees. The guy is a machine. He's having an awesome year. I don't see any way the Niners can slow him down, let alone stop him. In what I suspect will be a run-and-gun  offensive battle, I expect some league records to fall (they've been doing that a lot already in this remarkable post-season) and for the Saints to come out on top by 10 or more points.

Would I love to be wrong about this! But honestly I just don't see a chance for an SF victory Saturday afternoon at Candlestick. The only real hope would be for the Niners to force two or three early turnovers, score off of them and knock the Saints back on their heels early enough in the game that they have trouble coming back. That could happen, of course; the Niners lead the NFL in takeaway ratio. But I'm not feeling it.
Filed under  //  49ers   Football  

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Nov 21 / 12:52am

Niners Continue Looking Good, But Thursday Could Be a Real Turkey

The Niners overcame a sluggish and sloppy first half today to blow out the Arizona Cardinals 23-7 as they raised their NFL second-best record to 9-1 and rack up their eighth straight victory.

The win wasn't as easy as the score made it sound. Defense forced five turnovers before the third quarter was a wrap but special teams were uncharacteristically shaky and the offense seemed to have a hard  time finding its way until the D gave it great field position on two straight possessions after the half.

I wasn't surprised the game was harder than many expected. The Cardinals had won two straight under a really unseasoned backup QB and they were not blown out by anyone prior to today's 16-point loss.

Now the Niners have three days of rest (one day of which will hardly be a resting day as they travel east once again) before taking on the Baltimore Ravens. At 7-3, the Ravens are tied with the Steelers atop the AFC North and are 5-0 on their home turf. This game could easily provide the second blemish on the Niners' 2011 record. But this is the last of only two real contests SF faces for the rest of the season. (The other date is Week 14 when they host the Steelers.) All of their remaining games are against their own NFC West conference, and there's not a viable threat in the bunch. 

So the Niners will go at least 13-3, more likely 14-2 and quite possibly 15-1. 

Thanksgiving Day should be a barn-burner. Hope there's no turkeys in the barn.
Filed under  //  49ers   Football   Sports  

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Nov 4 / 12:16pm

NFL is 60%+ Predictable. Good, Bad or Indifferent?

I was perusing USA Today's weekly NFL picks this morning for the first time in a while. Back in the day when sports was a more central passion, I read not only these guys but ESPN's experts and several others as well. Every week, I'd predict all of the NFL games. Over the years, I had about a 63% success rate. Which it turns out is about the same as the vaunted experts.

Today I noticed that of USA Today's eight experts, they all agree on the outcome of nine of this weekend's 14 games. In two others, there is only one dissenting vote from the majority. The only games on which they have any larger disagreement are:

  • Rams (4) at Cardinals (4)
  • Ravens (3) at Steelers (5)
  • Bills (3) at Jets (5)
The accuracy rating of the eight-member panel ranges from a low of .638 to a high of .681. That's a five-game-correct delta for almost the first half of the season. 

What I want to know is how many times this season all eight of them picked a wrong outcome. In years past, I'd have spent a couple of hours researching that. Now I just wonder about it.

Wonder what that means.
Filed under  //  Football   Sports  

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Oct 17 / 2:36pm

ESPN Sees Special Season for the Niners (tag: Sports, Football, 49ers))

Apparently the guys over at ESPN think the San Francisco 49ers have a special season brewing. 

Can't say I disagree.

The Niners have been transformed from an elegant white wine and caviar club to a traditional NFL smashmouth brand of team. Doubt it? Here are some stats that I think make my case:

  • They are 5th in rushing offense, nearly dead last (30th) in pass offense
  • They are 2nd in rush defense, 21st in pass defense and 12th overall (their highest defensive attainment in decades)
  • On special teams, they are 5th in kicking, 4th in punting, #2 in kickoff returns, #6 in punt returns.
  • Aldon Smith & Justin Smith rank #5 and #6 among sackers with 6 and 5, respectively.
This is a team that has clearly begun to emphasize in-your-face running and defense as well as special teams while leaving passing, its nom de guerre for many years, on the sideline. The West Coast Offense is no more in San Francisco.  And the Niners under Jim Harbaugh seem better for that.

For me, they're not quite as much fun to watch any more but the style of play seems to fit the coach and players they have, and that's what's important because that leads to a team that is both competitive and a potential contender. Been a while since us Niners Faithful experienced that combination.

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Oct 16 / 6:15pm

Niners Overcome Adversity to Notch Win #5

The San Francisco 49ers took a major stride toward a return to respectability today as they overcame 15 stupid penalties, an early turnover, a hot team, a road trip and a loud, hostile stadium to beat the previously undefeated Detroit Lions 25-19.

Aside from the penalties -- too many of which came on offense -- the Niners played one of their better games of the season, even if not statistically. The Lions' stout defense gave them fits, but they managed to solve the fluid D enough times to pull out a come-from-behind victory. And they did it, as I predicted, by more than five points. (Hey, six is more than five!)

Quite an enjoyable if overly long regulation-time game. So both teams are now 5-1, leaving the Bears the only undefeated team in the NFL. 
Filed under  //  49ers   Football   Lions   Sports  

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Oct 16 / 1:11am

Niners vs. Lions: A Feast for an Old Fan

Tomorrow morning Pacific Time, the San Francisco 49ers (4-1) and the unbeaten Detroit Lions (5-0) square off in Detroit. At this moment, at least, I intend to be in church when the game starts and to come home and watch it from my DVR after it has ended. No guarantees. The Church of the NFL may yet beckon me with temptation beyond my endurance.

I grew up a Lions fan. As a young sportswriter, I covered the Lions. I was on the sports staff of the Pontiac (now Oakland) Press the year the long-time iconic Sports Editor, Bruno Kearns, worked tirelessly to get the city of Pontiac to build the stadium that lured the Lions out of Detroit and into suburbia. From the time I left Detroit until I landed in the Bay Area in the late 70's, I was a die-hard Lions fan. And that meant supporting them through some horrible, horrible years.

But I have always believed that when you relocate, you need to adopt the local teams, so I became a 49ers loyalist and I have remained one ever since.

So for me this game is going to be wonderful no matter how it turns out. I expect a really great game, but I think the Niners might win this one by more points than most folks think.

The last time the Lions were 5-0 was in 1956. They faced the Niners for their sixth game and defeated the gang from SF. I was 11 at the time but I remember the game from the newspaper accounts.

But the Niners have won the last five meetings between these two teams, having outscored Detroit almost 2-to-1 (115 to 62).

I think the Lions depend far too heavily on the long game and the 49ers are far too good deep on D to give up many long plays for the Lions to stand a real chance in this one. There are a number of key stats I watch that all favor my Niners, most important of which are the Niners much higher-rated defense (they're 2nd through 4th in the stats categories while the Lions are in the bottom third on all three) and their better takeaway ratio (+10 to +7) even though Detroit is good enough to be tied for second in the league.

But the real reason I think the Niners are likely to win Sunday is that long winning streaks are really tough to sustain in the NFL. The Lions are a good team, a much-improved team and I think they'll give SF fits a good part of the day, trying the defense particularly. But when it's all over, I expect the Niners to win by 5+.
Filed under  //  49ers   Football   NFL   Sports  

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Sep 11 / 5:34pm

Niners Fans, Be Afraid. Be Very Afraid

Fans of the San Francisco 49ers, of which I count myself one for many years, should be afraid after watching their beloved team appear to decimate the Seattle Seahawks 33-17 today.

Defense was strong, but against a young, weak, and injury-hampered offense run by a new, rusty quarterback. Special teams were strong but any time you see one club's special teams do well, it's almost always at least in part because the other club's special teams did poorly.

Offensively, the Niners were highly disappointing. They never hit a rhythm, never put together a convincing drive, played far too conservatively at inappropriate times, and just didn't look right. One third-down conversion all day?  You're not going to win many NFL games with that kind of offense, I don't care how good your D is. And frankly it's hard to tell just how good the D really is yet. In the first half, it looked like they really disrupted Tarvaris Jackson's rhythm and schemes. He was sacked several times, hurried a lot and hammered just as he released the ball more times than I've seen in a lot of years. But that's mostly attributable not to the pass rush of the Niners as it is to the sieve-like nature of the Hawks O-line.

Frank Gore had a terrible day. In fact, the Niners running game was pathetic. And on at least two or three third-and-short situations where you'd want Gore in the lineup, he was on the bench.

It's not a huge shock that the offense would be shaky after the lockout-delayed season start, and I saw a few glimmers from QB Alex Smith today that I had not seen in the past couple of dismal years. Maybe the best quarterback ever destroyed by NFL stupidity and greed can pull his career out of the fire. I'm skeptical, but it could happen.

It's nice to start with a conference win but there's still a lot of room for wait-and-see with these guys.
Filed under  //  49ers   Football  

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