Dan Shafer's Sports Blog http://danssportsblog.posterous.com Dan's thoughts on baseball and football, mostly posterous.com Fri, 11 May 2012 12:09:11 -0700 New-Look Randy Moss Impresses 49ers Early http://danssportsblog.posterous.com/new-look-randy-moss-impresses-49ers-early http://danssportsblog.posterous.com/new-look-randy-moss-impresses-49ers-early This report suggests that 35-year-old Randy Moss may be ready to make a major contribution to the Niners despite a one-year layoff from the game.

I was -- and remain -- skeptical that picking up Moss was a good move. But on his first day of on-field practice, he apparently impressed coaches and teammates with his physical conditioning, his attitude (he even cut his dreadlocks short) and speed. It would, of course, be really awesome to have a real Moss in the lineup for the Niners this year as they seem intent on making another Super Bowl push.

So I'll keep watching and listening with an open mind that is skeptical but hopeful of Moss' possible use to the Niners.

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Wed, 09 May 2012 14:31:30 -0700 AJ Jenkins, Jerry Rice and The Hill: Good Sign! http://danssportsblog.posterous.com/aj-jenkins-jerry-rice-and-the-hill-good-sign http://danssportsblog.posterous.com/aj-jenkins-jerry-rice-and-the-hill-good-sign Rookie wideout AJ Jenkins has accepted a challenge from the greatest WR I ever saw play, Jerry Rice, to take his game to a whole new level. And as much as I hate that term (normally defining a new level is silly and impossible), in this case, the new level is the top of a major hill-climbing run that Rice credits for his late-game stamina and heroics.

Jenkins responded to a Tweet by Rice for a joint run up The Hill, a grueling two-and-a-half mile incline run located in San Carlos, California's Edgewood Park, the final 800 meters of which are virtually straight uphill.

If Jenkins is that serious about his game, he could be the long-awaited WR savior Niners fans have been pining for since Rice last donned the red and gold.

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Thu, 03 May 2012 11:22:17 -0700 Great Piece on Death of Junior Seau http://danssportsblog.posterous.com/great-piece-on-death-of-junior-seau http://danssportsblog.posterous.com/great-piece-on-death-of-junior-seau There is, sadly, not a lot of good writing being done in the world of journalism these days. Today I found an exception.

Mike Lopresti wrote a softly beautiful, insightful and penetrating piece for USA Today on the apparent suicide yesterday of long-time NFL great Junior Seau. In it, he asks the larger question: was this brilliant athlete's death part of (and by implication masking) a larger problem with the very culture of the NFL? The still-fresh wounds of the Saints' bounty scandal in which players were offered and paid bribes for injuring players from other teams give stark relief to Seau's apparent decision that he couldn't live any longer with the demons of head injury.

Clearly we don't yet have nearly enough information to draw the conclusion that the brain damage was the cause or even a contributing cause of Seau's death. But there are plenty of indications that it is. 

The NFL has been burying this problem for years. Maybe it takes the loss of so bright a light as Seau to bring it into a stark enough focus that something real and deep and serious and lasting can be done about it.

Meanwhile, Junior Seau is gone.

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Mon, 30 Apr 2012 18:28:49 -0700 Bleacher Report Eval of Niners Draft is Weak-Kneed http://danssportsblog.posterous.com/bleacher-report-eval-of-niners-draft-is-weak http://danssportsblog.posterous.com/bleacher-report-eval-of-niners-draft-is-weak I read Bleacher Report just about every day. Sometimes I read every article in the newsletter. I read everything they write about the San Francisco 49ers. So I was anxious to hear their assessment of the Niners' just-completed NFL draft. I'll tell you up front, I'm pretty dubious. Trent Baalke, the Niners' GM, has earned a rep as a draft wizard and those who have criticized his past picks have not fared well when the season played out.

But Ted Johnson went through the Niners' eight top picks and rated the first pick an "A" and all the others a "B". Gimme a break. In a couple of cases the only way Johnson could even defend his eval was to fall back on "Trent Baalke knows more than we do."

Yeesh. Maybe Johnson belongs in the front office as a flak for the Niners. He's mastered the art so well.

FWIW, here are my grades of the Niners' picks:

A. J. Jenkins, Illinois, WR. This guy's fast but he's small even by the Niners' diminutive standards at 6-0. I'll agree with Johnson's A here, though. He may have some serious potential even as a rookie.

LaMichael James, Oregon, RB. He's too small (5-8, 194) and clearly not ready for NFL Prime Time. That makes him a B before I throw in the fact that we've got too many freaking running backs already! As a pick, this is a low C this high in the draft.

Joe Looney, Wake Forest, OL. At 6-3 and 315, this guy's a moose and his rep is for having great hands and a mix-it-up attitude. He could get the start or 1st backup at RG. Smallish school but he seems like a decent fit. I'll agree with Johnson and grade this one a B.

Darius Fleming, Notre Dame, OLB?. He has a rep as a decent edge rusher but I can't see him higher than 3 on the depth chart behind Ahmad Brooks and Parys Haralson. Average pick gets a C.

Trenton Robinson,  Michigan State, S. Robinson comes in at 5’9” and 193 pounds, which is a lot of weight on a small frame for an NFL safety. My guess: he won't be a regular for at least two years and probably never make a real mark. My grade: D.

Jason Slowey, Western Oregon, OL. At 6-4/315, Slowey has size, speed and strength. He's from a really small school which makes it hard to assess his NFL potential. He's likely to end up as a center for the Niners. I'm picking him to be the draft surprise and giving his pick an A.

Cam Johnson, Virginia, OLB. Could be another surprise smart pick. At 6-2 and 268, he has the size and build to be an immediate contributor at OLB, which was a weak position for the Niners last year if only in its lack of depth. He could also play DE when called on and that's a big plus. I like this guy. Give him an A. (A- but I don't let myself do + and -).

Overall. USA Today ranked the Niners' 2012 draft quality overall at 23rd out of the 32 teams. I think they got it about right.

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Fri, 27 Apr 2012 10:55:18 -0700 Niners Plan: Go With Three Linemen, 1 RB, 6 Wideouts? http://danssportsblog.posterous.com/niners-plan-go-with-three-linemen-1-rb-6-wide http://danssportsblog.posterous.com/niners-plan-go-with-three-linemen-1-rb-6-wide So the San Francisco 49ers use their low first-round draft pick to add another freaking wideout? We have so many of them now that they'll be fighting to get a few snaps in the pre-season.

With no glaring need, I suppose GM Trent Baalke is looking for some trade opportunities with some of his existing receiving corps members. I won't be too direct questioning his moves; the guy's been a draftmaster in the recent past. But still, this one's puzzling.

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Mon, 09 Apr 2012 10:48:22 -0700 Giants Off to 0-3 Start Thanks to...Pitching? http://danssportsblog.posterous.com/giants-off-to-0-3-start-thanks-topitching http://danssportsblog.posterous.com/giants-off-to-0-3-start-thanks-topitching The Giants opened their season in Arizona. Which should have been a tip-off all by itself. The G-men often struggle in the Arizona desert. You'd think that this close to Spring Training in that state, they'd be acclimated. You'd be wrong.

At least as far as the pitching is concerned.

In recent years, Giants' pitching has been top-rank while their offense has sputtered and been terribly inconsistent. Now it appears that their starting pitching is -- for the moment at least -- the bane of their existence. The Diamondbacks won all three games by one run even though the Giants scored four or more in all three contests. Last season, when the Giants scored four or more, they had a huge upside W-L percentage.

But the present starting rotation had a three-day ERA of 8.22. And defense -- the other supposed mainstay of this year's version -- stumbled as well, committing three errors each in Games 1 and 3. Frighteningly enough, SS Brandon Crawford committed two errors in the three-game set, which is a radical departure from his usual steadiness. (To be fair, the D-backs committed five errors Sunday as well; the Chase Field infield is a piece of burnt concrete that induces errors.)

Meanwhile, the hitting, while anemic -- the team BA is .219 and with runners in scoring position, it's .217 -- has been timely. The Giants went long four times in three games. Meanwhile, the highly touted starting three of Lincecum, Bumgarner and Cain served up six gopher balls.

Last year, ace Lincecum had a mediocre 13-14 year in the W-L department primarily because of poor hitting support. The Giants batted just under .200 behind him and he lost six shutouts. But he was, for the most part, pretty sharp, earning a respectable 2.74 ERA while holding opponents to a .222 average. If he can relocate his form and the Giants can up the hitting average while maintaining some HR power, this start could be an aberration, but still....

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Fri, 06 Apr 2012 23:50:37 -0700 Giants Lose Season Opener Thanks to Muffs, Timmy http://danssportsblog.posterous.com/giants-lose-season-opener-thanks-to-muffs-tim http://danssportsblog.posterous.com/giants-lose-season-opener-thanks-to-muffs-tim Last year, the SF Giants averaged 2.79 runs per game when their supposed ace, Tim Lincecum, was on the mound. They served up 10 shutouts behind him. No wonder he had such a so-so record.

The good news is the G-Men scored four runs in their season opener at the Diamondbacks this afternoon. The entirely revamped offense showed signs of resurgence, though they left eight men on base which is a continuation of another somewhat disturbing trend from 2011.

The bad news is that Lincecum pitched like he did too often last season: erratic start, settle down, then fall apart with little notice. He was helped along by three errors committed by the defense, the most egregious being committed by shortstop Brandon Crawford and third-sacker Pablo Sandoval. The latter was scary in large part because it continues a pattern we saw too often last year and during spring training.

But this one can be laid at the feet of Lincecum. The unevenness with which he pitched in streaks was reminiscent of last year, particularly against the D-Backs, who've now beaten him four straight times.

Melky Cabrera was the hero for the Giants, scorching a line-drive homer onto and over the right-field fence to score two runs at a time when the Giants were trailing 3-0. 

One game does not a season make. Nor does it make a trend. But it does make for nerves.

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Fri, 16 Mar 2012 16:51:54 -0700 Note to Niners: DO. NOT. DO. THIS. TO. ALEX http://danssportsblog.posterous.com/note-to-niners-do-not-do-this-to-alex http://danssportsblog.posterous.com/note-to-niners-do-not-do-this-to-alex ESPN reports that the San Francisco 49ers are one of three teams in the finals of what they call the Peyton Manning Sweepstakes. Appropriate name for this fiasco. Manning is too big a risk. Period.

But  beyond that there is a sort of gestalt at work here. The Niners have been messing with Alex Smith's head from the day they drafted him out of college. They started him too soon, gave him too much offense to learn, swapped offensive coordinators on him every stinking season, and generally treated him as if he were just another player. Despite all that horrible mistreatment, Alex hung in. When the Niners hired Jim Harbaugh as their head coach, he went to Smith and asked him if he wanted to be the starter at SF or be traded. The two hit it off. Result: a stunningly good season for the Niners.

Now with the proper additional elements -- notably a new wide-out whose name is NOT Randy Moss -- the Niners could ride Smith to a Super Bowl win. They should be dancing in the aisles. So what do they do?

They entertain, wine, dine and test Peyton Manning, whose severe neck injury kept him out of last season and who was released by the Colts where he was a cult hero. Shouldn't that alone tell us something?

Guys, guys, guys. By even considering signing Manning you've given Smith another shot to the helmet of self-confidence. Now it may not even matter if you sign Manning or not because Alex may be so shell-shocked that he won't be able to perform even if you don't sign him. What are you thinking? Manning is the QB of the past. Smith is the QB of the present and near future. And you have a solid backup for him in Colin Kaepernick. 

It would be insane, dishonest, insensitive and uncaring for the Niners to essentially dump Smith now for the shiny old object rolling in from the Midwest. Let it go. Give Smith some love. If not, you may not just lose a great QB and a strong human being, you may also start bleeding fan support as well.

I'm just sayin'.

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Mon, 12 Mar 2012 22:07:33 -0700 Niners Sign Moss. Big, Big Mistake http://danssportsblog.posterous.com/niners-sign-moss-big-big-mistake http://danssportsblog.posterous.com/niners-sign-moss-big-big-mistake According to reports circulating tonight, the once-great Randy Moss has signed a one-year deal with the 49ers. Assuming it's true, it's one of those inexplicably dumb moves teams make from time to time that cause most knowledgeable fans to scratch their heads.

The guy's 35. He's been out of football a full season. The last season he played, he visited three rosters and didn't help any of his teams. 

But the real problem is team chemistry. Moss has been a troublemaker and a troubled player everywhere he's been. The Niners don't need his garbage.

Hopefully, he doesn't make the starting lineup.

Even if Jim Harbaugh turns out to be prescient here and Moss makes a big on-field contribution, unless he's matured a lot during his lost seasons, he's not going to be a positive influence on a relatively young team.

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Fri, 09 Mar 2012 14:25:37 -0800 Hey, Niners. Forget Manning. Sign Alex. You Morons. http://danssportsblog.posterous.com/hey-niners-forget-manning-sign-alex-you-moron http://danssportsblog.posterous.com/hey-niners-forget-manning-sign-alex-you-moron Publicly, the San Francisco 49ers insist that: (a) they really, really, REALLY want to re-sign QB Alex Smith; and (b) they have zero interest in the recently released super QB from the Indianapolis Colts, Peyton Manning.

So why is it taking so long to do a deal with Smith? The team's offer is reportedly for 3 years and little or no guaranteed money while Smith and his agent Tom Condon (who, coincidentally?, represents Manning, too) have said they want 5 years and about $20 million guaranteed.

After the way the Niners have shafted Smith over the years and after the great breakout season he just had, you'd think they'd feel somewhat obligated to offer him a decent deal. I know, that's not how things work in the No Fun League, but still... But the fact is, Smith deserves to be rewarded now for the accomplishments of the past, particularly last season. The Niners would be morons to sign Manning, assuming they could get him in the high-stakes bidding war that's already unfolding. Manning's physical condition is dubious, and his remaining years as a top-flight QB are definitely three or fewer. Smith, OTOH, is still young (27) and among the top 5-7 QBs in the NFL despite the Niners' mismanagement of his career.

Let's get this thing done, guys. Focus, focus, focus.

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Sat, 03 Mar 2012 00:06:30 -0800 Niners Lock Down Ahmad Brooks. Good for Them! http://danssportsblog.posterous.com/niners-lock-down-ahmad-brooks-good-for-them http://danssportsblog.posterous.com/niners-lock-down-ahmad-brooks-good-for-them I was delighted to read that the San Francisco 49ers had locked in linebacker Ahmad Brooks to a six-year contract extension. This guy has blossomed over the past three seasons into a solid mainstay of an increasingly powerful defensive unit. 

For a guy who started his NFL career as a supplemental draftee by the Bengals, who released him two years later after virtually no playing time, Brooks has really come into his own. He'd be hard to replace. Now the Niners don't have to worry about that.

Good move.

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Wed, 29 Feb 2012 13:22:40 -0800 Niners Have One of Five Best Future QBs, But It's Not Alex? http://danssportsblog.posterous.com/niners-have-one-of-five-best-future-qbs-but-i http://danssportsblog.posterous.com/niners-have-one-of-five-best-future-qbs-but-i Interesting post on the Bleacher Report today by SF Bay Area correspondent Grant Cohn. In picking the top five prospects to be a top-rank NFL quarterback in five years, Cohn gives the No. 5 spot to Niners' backup Colin Kaepernick.

Gotta admit I didn't see that one coming.

Cohn has some interesting arguments in favor of Kaepernick despite the guy's abysmal showing in the past pre-season. But what it seems to come down to for him is that Kapernick will be way better than he seems to look almost entirely because of the influence of Coach Jim Harbaugh.

Could be. Harbaugh certainly did wonders for Alex Smith this year (though going way conservative in game plans had something to do what that as well). But I'm pretty skeptical. Also, I'm doubtful that if Kaepernick is half as good as Cohn says he is, he'll still be a Niner in five years. I don't see Alex retiring or being let go in that time frame unless he explodes or gets hurt badly and I don't expect a guy with the skills Cohn sees in Colin will stick around as a backup that long.

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Mon, 23 Jan 2012 17:05:51 -0800 Tim Thomas is a Jerk http://danssportsblog.posterous.com/tim-thomas-is-a-jerk http://danssportsblog.posterous.com/tim-thomas-is-a-jerk Yeesh. My headline expresses my thoughts but so does this parenthetical remark by the writer:

(Is it any wonder that the country is so politically fractured when a bunch of guys can't agree to just get together and talk sports?)

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Wed, 18 Jan 2012 13:24:39 -0800 Eli Manning Has the Flu. Bad New for Giants ((tag; Sports, Football, 49ers)) http://danssportsblog.posterous.com/eli-manning-has-the-flu-bad-new-for-giants-ta http://danssportsblog.posterous.com/eli-manning-has-the-flu-bad-new-for-giants-ta Press reports indicate that New York Giants QB Eli Manning left practice early today with the stomach flu.

If that's true -- and I don't put anything past NFL owners and managers -- then Manning will be debilitated and either missing practice or working an abbreviated program for two or three days. This is Wednesday. If he doesn't recover much of his strength before Friday, this could really hurt him coming into Candlestick Park for Sunday's NFC Championship game.

I never wish ill or injury on anyone and this is no exception but a tiny corner of my mind licks its lips in anticipation of any reason the Niners can get to support optimism before the big game Sunday.

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Fri, 13 Jan 2012 18:15:35 -0800 Niners - Saints Tomorrow: My Prognosis http://danssportsblog.posterous.com/niners-saints-tomorrow-my-prognosis http://danssportsblog.posterous.com/niners-saints-tomorrow-my-prognosis Here, FWIW, is my take on tomorrow's playoff game between my San Francisco 49ers and the smokin' hot New Orleans Saints.

The present line has the Saints favored by an astonishingly small 3.5 point margin. The over-under is also low at 47.5.

I'm predicting the Niners will lose, but by between 6 and 10 points, making the game closer than expected.

If -- big If -- the Niners are ahead by 10+ at the half, they could pull out a win. Otherwise, I don't see how the Niners stop the potent Saints' offense and Drew Brees in a second half they've dominated all year.

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Sun, 08 Jan 2012 23:34:49 -0800 Niners to Face Saints in First...and Last?...Playoff Game of 2012 http://danssportsblog.posterous.com/niners-to-face-saints-in-firstand-lastplayoff http://danssportsblog.posterous.com/niners-to-face-saints-in-firstand-lastplayoff I watched the New Orleans Saints second-half dismantling of my old favorite Detroit Lions Saturday evening with no mixed emotions at all. I really wanted the Lions to win that one. Not only because I used to cover the Lions. Not only because I think their fans deserve better. But also because, selfishly, I figured my Niners had a better chance of beating the winner of the other NFC Wild Card playoff game than the Saints.

But what I saw in the game leads me to believe it's going to be all but impossible for the Niners to beat the Saints. As good as the SF defense is, I don't think it can bottle up Drew Brees. The guy is a machine. He's having an awesome year. I don't see any way the Niners can slow him down, let alone stop him. In what I suspect will be a run-and-gun  offensive battle, I expect some league records to fall (they've been doing that a lot already in this remarkable post-season) and for the Saints to come out on top by 10 or more points.

Would I love to be wrong about this! But honestly I just don't see a chance for an SF victory Saturday afternoon at Candlestick. The only real hope would be for the Niners to force two or three early turnovers, score off of them and knock the Saints back on their heels early enough in the game that they have trouble coming back. That could happen, of course; the Niners lead the NFL in takeaway ratio. But I'm not feeling it.

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Mon, 21 Nov 2011 00:52:18 -0800 Niners Continue Looking Good, But Thursday Could Be a Real Turkey http://danssportsblog.posterous.com/niners-continue-looking-good-but-thursday-cou http://danssportsblog.posterous.com/niners-continue-looking-good-but-thursday-cou The Niners overcame a sluggish and sloppy first half today to blow out the Arizona Cardinals 23-7 as they raised their NFL second-best record to 9-1 and rack up their eighth straight victory.

The win wasn't as easy as the score made it sound. Defense forced five turnovers before the third quarter was a wrap but special teams were uncharacteristically shaky and the offense seemed to have a hard  time finding its way until the D gave it great field position on two straight possessions after the half.

I wasn't surprised the game was harder than many expected. The Cardinals had won two straight under a really unseasoned backup QB and they were not blown out by anyone prior to today's 16-point loss.

Now the Niners have three days of rest (one day of which will hardly be a resting day as they travel east once again) before taking on the Baltimore Ravens. At 7-3, the Ravens are tied with the Steelers atop the AFC North and are 5-0 on their home turf. This game could easily provide the second blemish on the Niners' 2011 record. But this is the last of only two real contests SF faces for the rest of the season. (The other date is Week 14 when they host the Steelers.) All of their remaining games are against their own NFC West conference, and there's not a viable threat in the bunch. 

So the Niners will go at least 13-3, more likely 14-2 and quite possibly 15-1. 

Thanksgiving Day should be a barn-burner. Hope there's no turkeys in the barn.

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Fri, 04 Nov 2011 12:16:48 -0700 NFL is 60%+ Predictable. Good, Bad or Indifferent? http://danssportsblog.posterous.com/nfl-is-60-predictable-good-bad-or-indifferent http://danssportsblog.posterous.com/nfl-is-60-predictable-good-bad-or-indifferent I was perusing USA Today's weekly NFL picks this morning for the first time in a while. Back in the day when sports was a more central passion, I read not only these guys but ESPN's experts and several others as well. Every week, I'd predict all of the NFL games. Over the years, I had about a 63% success rate. Which it turns out is about the same as the vaunted experts.

Today I noticed that of USA Today's eight experts, they all agree on the outcome of nine of this weekend's 14 games. In two others, there is only one dissenting vote from the majority. The only games on which they have any larger disagreement are:

  • Rams (4) at Cardinals (4)
  • Ravens (3) at Steelers (5)
  • Bills (3) at Jets (5)
The accuracy rating of the eight-member panel ranges from a low of .638 to a high of .681. That's a five-game-correct delta for almost the first half of the season. 

What I want to know is how many times this season all eight of them picked a wrong outcome. In years past, I'd have spent a couple of hours researching that. Now I just wonder about it.

Wonder what that means.

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Mon, 17 Oct 2011 14:36:46 -0700 ESPN Sees Special Season for the Niners (tag: Sports, Football, 49ers)) http://danssportsblog.posterous.com/espn-sees-special-season-for-the-niners-tag-s http://danssportsblog.posterous.com/espn-sees-special-season-for-the-niners-tag-s Apparently the guys over at ESPN think the San Francisco 49ers have a special season brewing

Can't say I disagree.

The Niners have been transformed from an elegant white wine and caviar club to a traditional NFL smashmouth brand of team. Doubt it? Here are some stats that I think make my case:

  • They are 5th in rushing offense, nearly dead last (30th) in pass offense
  • They are 2nd in rush defense, 21st in pass defense and 12th overall (their highest defensive attainment in decades)
  • On special teams, they are 5th in kicking, 4th in punting, #2 in kickoff returns, #6 in punt returns.
  • Aldon Smith & Justin Smith rank #5 and #6 among sackers with 6 and 5, respectively.
This is a team that has clearly begun to emphasize in-your-face running and defense as well as special teams while leaving passing, its nom de guerre for many years, on the sideline. The West Coast Offense is no more in San Francisco.  And the Niners under Jim Harbaugh seem better for that.

For me, they're not quite as much fun to watch any more but the style of play seems to fit the coach and players they have, and that's what's important because that leads to a team that is both competitive and a potential contender. Been a while since us Niners Faithful experienced that combination.

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http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/541431/dan.png http://posterous.com/users/4aGcRuIxpPvb Dan Shafer danshafer Dan Shafer
Sun, 16 Oct 2011 18:15:15 -0700 Niners Overcome Adversity to Notch Win #5 http://danssportsblog.posterous.com/niners-overcome-adversity-to-notch-win-5 http://danssportsblog.posterous.com/niners-overcome-adversity-to-notch-win-5 The San Francisco 49ers took a major stride toward a return to respectability today as they overcame 15 stupid penalties, an early turnover, a hot team, a road trip and a loud, hostile stadium to beat the previously undefeated Detroit Lions 25-19.

Aside from the penalties -- too many of which came on offense -- the Niners played one of their better games of the season, even if not statistically. The Lions' stout defense gave them fits, but they managed to solve the fluid D enough times to pull out a come-from-behind victory. And they did it, as I predicted, by more than five points. (Hey, six is more than five!)

Quite an enjoyable if overly long regulation-time game. So both teams are now 5-1, leaving the Bears the only undefeated team in the NFL. 

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http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/541431/dan.png http://posterous.com/users/4aGcRuIxpPvb Dan Shafer danshafer Dan Shafer